UNCTAD urges stronger action to help least developed nations tap into carbon markets
The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) urged during the 29th United Nations Climate Change ...
IEA: Renewable sources’ share of global energy supply to up to 35% in 2025
- IEA report: Intense heatwaves in the first half of 2024 elevated demand and put electricity systems
- Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said renewable sources of electricity are also set to expand rapidly this year and next, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025.
A new IEA report found that the amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as three-quarters of the growth.
Despite the sharp increases in renewables, global power generation from coal is unlikely to decline this year due to the strong growth in demand, especially in China and India, according to the IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update found.
As a result, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global power sector are plateauing, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025.
However, considerable uncertainties remain: Chinese hydropower production recovered strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decline in global power sector emissions in 2024.
Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023, the IEA’s report said. This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the exceptional rebounds seen in the wake of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The strong increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth around 4% again, according to the report.
Some of the world’s major economies are registering particularly strong increases in electricity consumption. Demand in India is expected to surge by a massive 8% this year, driven by strong economic activity and powerful heatwaves. China is also set to see significant demand growth of more than 6%, as a result of robust activity in the services industries and various industrial sectors, including the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
After declining in 2023 amid mild weather, electricity demand in the United States is forecast to rebound this year by 3% amid steady economic growth, rising demand for cooling and an expanding data center sector. By contrast, the European Union will see a more modest recovery in electricity demand, with growth forecast at 1.7%, following two consecutive years of contraction amid the impacts of the energy crisis.
In many parts of the world, increasing use of air-conditioning will remain a significant driver of electricity demand. Multiple regions faced intense heatwaves in the first half of 2024, which elevated demand and put electricity systems under strain, the report finds.
“Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heatwaves,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals. At the same time, it’s crucial to expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable electricity supply – and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems.”
With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), the electricity demand of data centers is drawing increased attention, underscoring the need for more reliable data and better stocktaking measures.
The report highlighted the wide range of uncertainties concerning the electricity demand of data centers, including the pace of deployment, the diverse and expanding uses of AI, and the potential for energy efficiency improvements. Better collection of electricity consumption data of the data center sector will be essential to identify past developments correctly and to better understand future trends.
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