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El Niño intensifies, raising global risks of drought, floods, wildfires: WMO
A strengthening El Niño, combined with warming ocean temperatures and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to amplify climate extremes in the coming months, prompting the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to step up early warning support and climate services for governments and vulnerable communities.
The latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts that El Niño will continue intensifying into a strong event during the August–October 2026 period, increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and wildfires across climate-sensitive regions.
El Niño gathers strength:
According to WMO, seasonal-average sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions, based on multi-model forecasts from leading global climate centers.
The climate agency also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop, while tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average. Together, these climate drivers are likely to intensify regional weather extremes, particularly across countries surrounding the Indian Ocean basin.
Early warnings take center stage:
In response, WMO said it is strengthening coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health prepare for potential impacts.
The organization said improving access to timely and reliable climate information will be critical to reducing risks for vulnerable communities before extreme weather events unfold.
UN warns climate crisis is escalating:
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the strengthening El Niño is unfolding against the backdrop of record global temperatures and worsening climate change.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat,” Guterres said, warning that continued fossil fuel expansion is intensifying climate risks and calling for urgent action to address the root causes of the crisis.
Window for preparedness:
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts alone do not prevent disasters, but they provide governments with an opportunity to act before impacts occur.
She noted that the current El Niño is developing alongside unprecedented ocean heat and rising global temperatures, making early preparedness and informed decision-making more important than ever.
Looking ahead:
WMO said the seasonal outlook complements its dedicated El Niño/La Niña Update by assessing multiple climate drivers—including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions—to provide a broader picture of expected global climate conditions. The next El Niño/La Niña Update is scheduled for early September.
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