{"id":50111,"date":"2020-01-09T19:53:51","date_gmt":"2020-01-09T17:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.csregypt.com\/?p=50111"},"modified":"2020-01-09T19:53:51","modified_gmt":"2020-01-09T17:53:51","slug":"economic-impact-of-australias-bushfires-to-exceed-4-4bn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csregypt.com\/en\/economic-impact-of-australias-bushfires-to-exceed-4-4bn\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic impact of Australia’s bushfires to exceed $4.4bn"},"content":{"rendered":"

The economic impact of the bushfires devastating Australia\u2019s eastern seaboard is likely to exceed the record $4.4bn set by 2009\u2019s Black Saturday blazes, Moody\u2019s Analytics has said.<\/p>\n

The Moody\u2019s economist Katrina Ell said the bushfires would further cripple Australia\u2019s already anaemic consumer confidence, increasing the chances of a rate cut next month, as well as causing damage to the economy through increased air pollution and direct harm to industries such as farming and tourism<\/a>.<\/p>\n

She said the risk of damage to the broader economy, outside areas ravaged by fire, was increased because the bushfire season still had months to run.<\/p>\n

So far the fires have charred\u00a0at least 8.4m hectares across the whole country<\/a>, compared with the 450,000 ha affected by Black Saturday.<\/p>\n

Ell said that in the past bushfires had tended only to hurt the local economies directly in the path of the flames.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut the risk of there being broader macroeconomic spillovers this season are high given the scale of the fires, as well as the fact that it is still early in the bushfire season and the existing fires are yet to be contained,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

She said the\u00a0direct effect on local industries<\/a>\u00a0came on top of the pain of Australia\u2019s lengthy drought.<\/p>\n

\u201cDamage to fresh produce will put upward pressure on consumer prices, given that most fresh fruit and vegetables consumed at home are sourced locally,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

She said tourism had also taken a \u201csignificant hit\u201d during what is normally peak season.<\/p>\n

Tourism bodies say it will\u00a0cost hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cVisitor numbers are significantly down in summer hot spots as smoke haze and uncertainty about safety keep local and international travellers away,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

She said broader effects included air pollution, which has affected 30% of the population, and would cause \u201creduced worker productivity, increased health spending, and lower crop yields\u201d, as well as road closures and the cost to insurers.<\/p>\n

As of Monday, more than 8,200 claims worth about $644m had been lodged, according to Insurance Council of Australia data.<\/p>\n

The ratings agency S&P said the claims were likely to crimp the profitability of insurers and lead to rises in premiums.<\/p>\n

Ell said indirect damage to the economy would be \u201csignificant\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe devastating social impacts of the bushfires mean that already-fragile consumer confidence will take an added hit,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Australian consumer was already shying away from discretionary spending and the widespread air pollution and devastation are further deterrents.\u201d<\/p>\n

She said the odds of the Reserve Bank cutting official rates from the already record low level of 0.75% to 0.5% when its board meets on 4 February were already high.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fires increase those odds,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

But she said direct spending by governments on the recovery effort would probably be more effective.<\/p>\n

\u201cFiscal measures can target the particular areas concerned, whereas monetary policy has a blunt impact,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The Morrison government has\u00a0so far pledged $2bn in fire relief<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 although the money will flow over two years \u2013 and the prime minister, Scott Morrison, and the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, have weakened their previously rock-solid commitment to returning the budget to surplus.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis potentially gives the government more flexibility to support the rebuild efforts and the broader economy,\u201d Ell said.<\/p>\n

She said rebuilding efforts usually helped offset the damage caused by fires.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut in this circumstance, rebuilding could be delayed for months, since many fires are ongoing, and this is only the start of the usual bushfire season.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt could be some months before efforts move from fire containment to rebuilding.\u201d<\/p>\n

The economic impact has been\u00a0particularly severe on Kangaroo Island<\/a>, off the coast of South Australia, where tourists have been evacuated, farms devastated and timber plantations burned.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Kangaroo Island Plantation Timber told the stock exchange about 90% of its timber had been affected by the fire, which has burned the western third of the island.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The economic impact of the bushfires devastating Australia\u2019s eastern seaboard is likely to exceed the record $4.4bn set by 2009\u2019s Black Saturday blazes, Moody\u2019s Analytics has said. The Moody\u2019s economist Katrina Ell said the bushfires would further cripple Australia\u2019s already anaemic consumer confidence, increasing the chances of a rate cut next month, as well as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":410,"featured_media":50114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[984,6030],"tags":[6782,6457,7960],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic impact of Australia's bushfires to exceed $4.4bn - Csr Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The economic damage from the bushfires devastating Australia\u2019s eastern seaboard is likely to exceed the record $4.4bn set by 2009\u2019s Black Saturday blazes.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/csregypt.com\/en\/economic-impact-of-australias-bushfires-to-exceed-4-4bn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic impact of Australia's bushfires to exceed $4.4bn - 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