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Report: Lebanon can lose millions over climate change..$ 7.6 bn investments needed
- Climate change impacts in Lebanon projected to reduce its growth potential by up to 2% annually by 2040
- Climate change expected to decrease water availability by up to 9% by 2040
- Decarbonizing Lebanon’s power sector can reduce economic costs by 41%, lower emissions by 43%
Lebanon – which is among the countries least prepared to face climate change – needs to invest approximately $7.6 billion between 2024 and 2030 in four key sectors; energy, water, transport and solid waste; to align its recovery with cost-effective climate action.
According to the Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), the capital-intensive energy sector alone would require approximately $4 billion in investment to diversify the generation mix toward cleaner, affordable renewable energy sources and to switch from liquid fuel to natural gas.
The report highlighted that climate shocks are projected to affect Lebanon’s GDP and fiscal balance, and to increase the debt-to-GDP ratio. Overall, the climate change impacts covered in the CCDR are projected to reduce Lebanon’s growth potential by up to 2% annually by 2040 and impede service provision, especially in water.
Climate change is projected to decrease water availability by up to 9% by 2040 (up to 50% during the dry season) and induce significant losses in key recovery-driving sectors, particularly agriculture and tourism with yearly losses projected to reach respectively up to $250 million and $75 million, threatening the livelihoods of a large portion of the population.
“Climate change poses a real threat to any country’s development prospects. Lebanon is no exception: the cost of inaction today will be too high for future generations,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Country Director.”Given the limited fiscal space, institutional and development challenges, Lebanon needs to prioritize and sequence recommended measures and interventions in the energy, water, transport and solid waste sectors, reflecting their urgency, synergies, and trade-offs in responding to development and climate needs.”
According to the report, decarbonizing Lebanon’s power sector offers a triple dividend; reducing economic costs by 41%, lowering emissions by 43% and improving macro-fiscal outcomes through lower fuel imports. Expanding renewable energy will not only reduce costs and meet growing demand but will also slow emissions generation and create more job opportunities. In the water sector, building climate-adaptive capacity is essential to increase water security through additional storage capacity, increased water use efficiency, and restoring resilient water services. Beyond the power and water sectors, promoting electrification of public transport and improving solid waste management present opportunities to advance the development and climate agendas simultaneously.
Increasing Lebanon’s capacity to adapt to climate shocks depends on how quickly it recovers from its current crisis and invests in adaptation measures, especially in the water, agricultural, tourism, and transport sectors. The Lebanon CCDR assesses the impact of an urgent financing envelope of $770 million that responds, in the short term (2024-26), and under any scenario, to partial yet critical needs in the four sectors.
Macroeconomic modeling of the impacts of the priority investment package showed that it would not place debt on an unsustainable footing. Mobilizing private sector financing can help enhance the fiscal and debt dynamics reducing the government’s share of total investment spending.
The report also underscored the important of empowering Lebanon’s private sector, improving governance, and adopting a whole-of-society approach to climate change as critical elements for Lebanon’s green recovery.
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