Report: Extreme weather events among top 10-year global risks for 2nd year running

31 / 01 / 2025

• Knowledge Bank
• news

Extreme weather events are anticipated to become even more of a concern than they already are, with this risk being top ranked in the 10-year risk list for the second year running. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse ranks the 2nd over the 10-year horizon, with a significant deterioration compared to its two-year ranking, according to the 20^th edition of the Global Risks Report 2025.

The risks associated with extreme weather events also are a key concern for the year ahead, with 14% of respondents selecting it. The burden of climate change is becoming more evident every year, as pollution from continued use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Heatwaves across parts of Asia; flooding in Brazil, Indonesia and parts of Europe; wildfires in Canada; and hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States are just some recent examples of such events.

Respondents list extreme weather events as the second most severe risk for 2027, with Pollution at the 6^th position, up four places from last year’s report. While extreme weather events remain a persistent concern year-on-year – the risk was also ranked the 2nd last year – the uptick in pollution demonstrates that environmental risks that are often perceived as long-term threats are starting to be perceived with more certainty by respondents as short-term realities, as their effects become more apparent. Climate change is also an underlying driver of several other risks that rank high. For example, involuntary migration or displacement is a leading concern, at the 8^th position.

The impacts of environmental risks have worsened in intensity and frequency since the Global Risks Report was launched in 2006. Moreover, the outlook for environmental risks over the next decade is alarming – while all 33 risks in the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024- 2025 (GRPS) are expected to worsen in severity from the two-year to the 10-year time horizon, environmental risks present the most significant deterioration.

The Global Risks Report 2025 presented the findings of the GRPS, which captures insights from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyzed global risks through three timeframes to support decision- makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.

Societal risks such as inequality ranked high among today’s leading concerns as well as over the last years. Polarization within societies was further hardening views and affecting policy-making. It also continued to fan the flames of misinformation and disinformation, which, for the second year running, was the top-ranked short- to medium-term concern across all risk categories. Efforts to combat this risk were coming up against a formidable opponent in Generative AI-created false or misleading content that can be produced and distributed at scale.

More broadly, technological risks, while not seen as immediate, rise in the rankings for the 10-year time horizon, given the rapid pace of change in areas such as AI and biotech.

Economic risks have fallen in the rankings since last year, with inflation and the risk of an economic downturn no longer top of mind among decisionmakers and experts. But there is no room for complacency: if the coming months see a spiral of tariffs and other trade-restricting measures globally, the economic consequences could be significant. Elevated valuations in several asset classes make them more vulnerable to these and other risks.

It will be up to visionary leaders to involve all key stakeholders to address the risks now foreseen for the next decade and to build durable peace and prosperity.

The report highlighted the latest findings from the annual Global Risks Perception Survey, which this year brought together the collective intelligence of over 900 global leaders across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society.

It also leveraged insights from some 100 thematic experts, including the risk specialists who form the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Council on Complex Risks, and the Chief Risk Officers Community.

The world has changed profoundly over the last 20 years and will continue to do so in unpredictable ways. But foresight based on informed, expert views remains critical for better planning and preparation, in both the short and long term. The 20th Global Risks Report continues to shine a light on globally relevant risks that are often complex and sometimes alarming. Yet, in examining the trajectory of the risks foreseen over the last two decades, it is clear that there is no viable alternative to multilateral solutions going forward.

Leaders across the public and private sectors, civil society, international organizations and academia must seize the baton to work openly and constructively with each other. By deepening honest dialogue and acting urgently to mitigate the risks that lie ahead, the world can rebuild trust and together create stronger, more resilient economies and societies.